The Golden Globes submission deadline has passed, and the clearest story of the week is category strategy. Two Amazon MGM titles, Project Hail Mary and I Play Rocky, have been entered in musical or comedy rather than drama, and that single decision reshapes both lanes.
Drama: The Odyssey holds
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey stays at No. 1. Our review called it epic filmmaking with familiar blind spots, but no other contender matches its scale, and Variety projects 16 Oscar nominations for it. La Bola Negra remains the main challenger after winning TIFF's People's Choice Award and the Hamptons jury prize. Wild Horse Nine opens Nov. 6 through Searchlight, so voters are about to meet the film we called one of the year's best two-handers. The movement is Clarissa. Tying for the most Gotham nominations moves the Esiri brothers' Lagos-set Mrs. Dalloway adaptation into the top five, and a Black-led African film in that conversation is a story in itself.
Musical or comedy: a new fight
Two studio films just made the comedy field far more crowded. Project Hail Mary goes from a crowded drama field to a lane where a crowd-pleasing hit can do real damage. I Play Rocky, which Amazon MGM had been expected to place in drama, now gives Anthony Ippolito a clear shot at actor in a musical or comedy. The Invite keeps the top spot on the strength of four Gotham nominations and a Palm Springs Vanguard Award, though its own Globes category has not been confirmed.
Lead performances
John Malkovich still leads drama actor, because his Venice Volpi Cup is the only major acting prize already won. Matt Damon follows on the strength of his film. Pedro Pascal moves up after Behemoth! premiered as the NYFF centerpiece, and Mahershala Ali's Gotham lead nomination confirms what we saw at TIFF in Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother. In actress, Julianne Moore holds the top spot for The Debut, while Sophie Okonedo climbs on her Gotham nomination for Clarissa and Rosalind Eleazar keeps drawing praise even from critics who were cool on Misty Green.
Supporting races
Sam Rockwell and Anne Hathaway hold their spots. Sandra Hüller is the name to watch after Variety reported she will campaign in supporting for Fatherland, which keeps that turn from competing with her lead work in Rose.
What to watch next
Gotham winners are named Nov. 30. Until then, every remaining category announcement will tell us how studios read this field, and which films they think can win rather than simply be nominated.
▲ Up ▼ Down ▶ Holding | ● Globes category placement confirmed in reporting | ✓ Seen = reviewed by Cup of Soul
Best Motion Picture – Drama
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | The Odyssey – Christopher Nolan ✓ Seen | Universal | The scale and craft case is unmatched, even if our review found familiar blind spots. |
| #2 Challenger ▶ | La Bola Negra – Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi ✓ Seen | Netflix | TIFF People's Choice and the Hamptons jury prize keep it the strongest festival-born rival. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▶ | Wild Horse Nine – Martin McDonagh ✓ Seen | Searchlight | Opens Nov. 6, when voters will meet the Malkovich-Rockwell pairing on screens. |
| #4 ▶ | Fjord – Cristian Mungiu | Neon | The Palme d'Or winner holds steady with Picture, Director and acting support. |
| #5 ▲ | Clarissa – Arie & Chuko Esiri ✓ Seen | Neon | Tying for the Gotham lead moves this Lagos-set drama from long shot into the conversation. |
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | The Invite – Olivia Wilde ✓ Seen | A24 | Four Gotham nominations and a Palm Springs Vanguard Award make it the lane's anchor; its category is not yet confirmed. |
| #2 Challenger ▲ | Project Hail Mary ● ✓ Seen | Amazon MGM | Its comedy submission takes it out of a crowded drama field and into a far softer lane. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▲ | I Play Rocky ● – Peter Farrelly | Amazon MGM | The TIFF crowd-pleaser switched to comedy after being expected in drama. |
| #4 ▶ | Artificial – Luca Guadagnino | Neon | The Hollywood Reporter says it was submitted as a comedy. |
Best Actor – Drama
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | John Malkovich – Wild Horse Nine ✓ Seen | Searchlight | His Venice Volpi Cup is still the only major acting prize already in hand. |
| #2 Challenger ▶ | Matt Damon – The Odyssey ✓ Seen | Universal | Sturdy, unshowy work carried by the year's biggest Picture campaign. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▲ | Pedro Pascal – Behemoth! | Searchlight | The NYFF centerpiece turned him into a real lead-actor campaign ahead of a Dec. 4 opening. |
| #4 ▶ | Mahershala Ali – Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother ✓ Seen | Amazon MGM | His Gotham lead nomination confirms the lead role we called worthy of him at TIFF. |
| #5 ▶ | Andrew Scott – Elsinore | LD Entertainment | Holds in our top tier, though the film's U.S. release is listed for 2027. |
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▲ | Anthony Ippolito ● – I Play Rocky | Amazon MGM | Moving to comedy puts the young Stallone turn at the front of a thinner field. |
| #2 Challenger ▲ | Ryan Gosling – Project Hail Mary ✓ Seen | Amazon MGM | Expected to follow his film into comedy now that it has been entered there. |
Best Actress – Drama
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | Julianne Moore – The Debut | A24 | The most sustained attention out of Telluride and Toronto, with a Dec. 11 opening. |
| #2 Challenger ▲ | Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa ✓ Seen | Neon | Her Gotham lead nomination keeps a film we called a triumph firmly in the race. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▶ | Rosalind Eleazar – Misty Green ✓ Seen | A24 | Mixed reviews for the film, but critics keep singling her out. |
Best Supporting Actor
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | Sam Rockwell – Wild Horse Nine ✓ Seen | Searchlight | Half of one of the year's best two-handers, and his film opens this week. |
| #2 Challenger ▶ | Paul Giamatti – The Debut | A24 | Rides alongside Moore in one of the season's most-discussed films. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▶ | Colman Domingo – Michael ✓ Seen | Lionsgate | Michael opened in April, so voters have had months with his performance. |
Best Supporting Actress
| Rank & Status | Contender | Studio | Shift & Movement Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Frontrunner ▶ | Anne Hathaway – The Odyssey ✓ Seen | Universal | Holds the top spot on the strength of the Picture frontrunner. |
| #2 Challenger ▶ | Penélope Cruz – The Invite / La Bola Negra ✓ Seen | A24 / Netflix | Her Gotham supporting nomination for The Invite points to where her campaign is headed. |
| #3 Dark Horse ▲ | Sandra Hüller – Fatherland ✓ Seen | MUBI | Variety reports she is going supporting for Fatherland, which clears her path. |
2026–27
Awards Tracker
Following the films, filmmakers and performances shaping the season — with a particular eye on the movies we've seen on the festival circuit.
Awards season changes quickly.
A film that looks unstoppable in September can disappear by January. A performance barely being discussed after the fall festivals can suddenly become impossible to ignore once critics groups, the Gothams, Golden Globes, Actor Awards, BAFTA and other precursors begin weighing in.
That's why we're tracking the season rather than declaring it over before it begins.
The Cup of Soul Awards Tracker follows the films, filmmakers and performances currently generating serious awards conversation — while paying particular attention to the movies we've actually seen on the festival circuit.
What the Gotham Nominations Changed
The first major precursor of the season is in. Five films tied for the lead with four nominations each: All of a Sudden, Clarissa, La Gradiva, The Invite and Tender Loving Care. Winners are named Nov. 30 in New York. The Gothams honor independent film, so studio heavyweights like The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three were never in play here.
Clarissa is the story of the morning. ✓ Seen Arie and Chuko Esiri's film tied for the most nominations, including Best Feature, Adapted Screenplay, a lead nomination for Sophie Okonedo and Breakthrough Performer for India Amarteifio. It's a Black-led film now sitting at the top of the indie race, and it's one we've seen.
Black filmmakers and performers are all over the ballot. Mahershala Ali earned a lead nomination for Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother, a film we've seen, with costar Adia up for Breakthrough Performer and the film in Best Feature. Shatara Michelle Ford's Dreams in Nightmares landed in Best Feature, and Aleshea Harris is up for Breakthrough Director for Is God Is.
Films we've seen showed up across the board. The Invite picked up four nods, including Penélope Cruz in Supporting Performance. Once Upon a Time in Harlem, which we saw at Sundance, is up for Best Documentary. Possible Love scored in International Feature, Original Screenplay and a lead nod for Jeon Do-yeon. Wild Horse Nine added Malkovich in Lead Performance and McDonagh's screenplay. Michael made the Audience Award lineup.
Not every frontrunner got love. La Bola Negra, our TIFF People's Choice favorite, came away with Breakthrough Performer for Guitarricadelafuente and an Audience Award slot. Ava DuVernay's 14th, which leads the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, missed the documentary lineup entirely.
What New York Changed
The New York Film Festival wrapped on Oct. 12. It doesn't hand out prizes, but it puts films in front of some of the toughest audiences of the fall. Three things stood out.
Pedro Pascal has a real lead-actor campaign. Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!, the festival's centerpiece, gives Pascal what early reviews call the best performance of his career, as a cellist coming home to Los Angeles after decades away. Searchlight opens it Dec. 4.
Rosalind Eleazar's performance is outlasting her film's reviews. Misty Green opened in theaters Oct. 9 to mixed reviews, but even critics lukewarm on Chris Rock's film keep singling out Eleazar. That's exactly the scenario we flagged in September.
Documentary is becoming a story about Black history and the present. Ava DuVernay closed the festival with 14th, her companion to 13th, about citizenship and the Fourteenth Amendment. And Once Upon a Time in Harlem, which we saw at Sundance, sits at or near the top of early documentary forecasts.
Best Picture
Established Conversation
The Odyssey ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
Christopher Nolan's epic remains one of the most consistently discussed Best Picture contenders heading into the heart of the season.
La Bola Negra ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
The film already had considerable festival attention before Toronto. Winning TIFF's People's Choice Award substantially strengthens its position heading into the next phase of the season. It added the jury's Best Narrative Feature prize at the Hamptons in October.
Wild Horse Nine ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
Martin McDonagh's film continues to generate substantial awards attention, with John Malkovich's Venice Best Actor victory providing the campaign with an important early prize.
Building Momentum
Fjord
The Debut
The Invite ✓ Seen
Project Hail Mary ✓ Seen
I Play Rocky
Elsinore
You Can See Everything
Artificial
Watching
All of a Sudden
Dune: Part Three
Club Kid ✓ Seen
Being Heumann
Ink ✓ Seen
Possible Love ✓ Seen
Tenzing ✓ Seen
Clarissa ✓ Seen
Tender Loving Care
Best Director
Established Conversation
Christopher NolanThe Odyssey✓ Seen
Javier Calvo & Javier AmbrossiLa Bola Negra✓ Seen
Martin McDonagh Wild Horse Nine ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
Building Momentum
Cristian MungiuFjord
Ryusuke HamaguchiAll of a Sudden
Olivia WildeThe Invite✓ Seen
Watching
Jesse EisenbergThe Debut
Denis VilleneuveDune: Part Three
Lee Chang-dongPossible Love✓ Seen
Danny BoyleInk✓ Seen
Jennifer PeedomTenzing✓ Seen
Mike LeighTender Loving Care
Best Actor
Established Conversation
Andrew ScottElsinore
Matt DamonThe Odyssey✓ Seen
John Malkovich Wild Horse Nine ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
Malkovich enters the fall with one of the season's most important pieces of hardware already in hand: Venice's Volpi Cup for Best Actor.
Building Momentum
Sebastian StanFjord
John TurturroThe Only Living Pickpocket in New York✓ Seen
Anthony IppolitoI Play Rocky
Ryan GoslingProject Hail Mary✓ Seen
Tom CruiseDigger✓ Seen
Pedro PascalBehemoth!
Mahershala AliYour Mother Your Mother Your Mother✓ Seen
Watching
Jack O'ConnellInk✓ Seen
Robert PattinsonPrimetime✓ Seen
GuitarricadelafuenteLa Bola Negra✓ Seen
Jaafar JacksonMichael✓ Seen
Genden PhuntsokTenzing✓ Seen
Alden EhrenreichA Talent for Murder✓ Seen
Ian McKellenThe Christophers
Best Actress
Established Conversation
Julianne Moore The Debut
Moore emerged from Telluride and Toronto as one of the performances receiving the most sustained attention in the category.
Building Momentum
Virginie EfiraAll of a Sudden
Renate ReinsveFjord
Sandra HüllerRose
Olivia WildeThe Invite✓ Seen
Ruth MadeleyBeing Heumann
Inde NavarretteObsession
Watching
Rosalind Eleazar Misty Green ✓ Seen by Cup of Soul
The film opened Oct. 9 to mixed reviews, but Eleazar's performance continues to be the one critics single out. She receives SCAD Savannah's Breakthrough award on Oct. 26.
Sophie OkonedoClarissa✓ Seen
Léa SeydouxGentle Monster
Jeon Do-yeonPossible Love✓ Seen
Helen MirrenA Talent for Murder✓ Seen
Best Supporting Actor
Established Conversation
Sam RockwellWild Horse Nine✓ Seen
Paul GiamattiThe Debut
Building Momentum
Colman DomingoMichael✓ Seen
John LeguizamoThe Odyssey✓ Seen
GuitarricadelafuenteLa Bola Negra✓ Seen
Edward NortonThe Invite✓ Seen
Andrew GarfieldArtificial
Watching
Guy PearceInk✓ Seen
John GoodmanDigger✓ Seen
Jeremy StrongThe Social Reckoning
Mark RuffaloBeing Heumann
Willem DafoeTenzing✓ Seen
Tom HiddlestonTenzing✓ Seen
Adam DriverPaper Tiger✓ Seen
Best Supporting Actress
Established Conversation
Anne HathawayThe Odyssey✓ Seen
Penélope CruzLa Bola Negra / The Invite✓ Seen
Building Momentum
Samantha MortonThe Odyssey✓ Seen
Olivia ColmanElsinore
Sandra HüllerProject Hail Mary✓ Seen
Tao OkamotoAll of a Sudden
Watching
Glenn CloseLa Bola Negra✓ Seen
Mariana Di GirolamoWild Horse Nine✓ Seen
Cho Yeo-jongPossible Love✓ Seen
Jeon Do-yeonPossible Love✓ Seen
Thinley LhamoTenzing✓ Seen
Olivia CookeA Talent for Murder✓ Seen
Olivia WildeBehemoth!
Kate O'FlynnTender Loving Care
The Craft Races
The craft categories are where a Best Picture campaign gets its numbers. Right now Variety projects 16 nominations for The Odyssey, 11 for Dune: Part Three and 10 for La Bola Negra. We've seen two of those three.
Key dates: Oscar shortlists Dec. 15 • Nominations Jan. 21, 2027 • Ceremony March 14, 2027
Cinematography
Hoyte van Hoytema, who won for Oppenheimer, is the early favorite for reuniting with Nolan.
Leading
The OdysseyHoyte van Hoytema✓ Seen
La Bola Negra✓ Seen
In the Mix
Dune: Part ThreeLinus Sandgren
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
DiggerEmmanuel Lubezki✓ Seen
Werwulf
Fatherland✓ Seen
Artificial
Film Editing
The surprise here is You Can See Everything, which is now showing up in editing forecasts alongside the epics.
Leading
The Odyssey✓ Seen
La Bola Negra✓ Seen
In the Mix
You Can See Everything
Wild Horse Nine✓ Seen
Elsinore
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
The Invite✓ Seen
Production Design
Three worlds built from scratch lead the field, and we've seen two of them.
Leading
The Odyssey✓ Seen
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra✓ Seen
In the Mix
Werwulf
Digger✓ Seen
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
Wuthering Heights
Costume Design
Ancient Greece, Arrakis and Spain lead, with Michael making a case for recreating some of pop music's most famous looks.
Leading
The Odyssey✓ Seen
La Bola Negra✓ Seen
Dune: Part Three
In the Mix
Sense and Sensibility
Michael✓ Seen
Werwulf
Wuthering Heights
Makeup & Hairstyling
Creature work and transformation lead. Werwulf tops Gold Derby's odds, while Variety has Dune: Part Three winning.
Leading
Werwulf
The Odyssey✓ Seen
Digger✓ Seen
In the Mix
Dune: Part Three
Michael✓ Seen
Wicker
Clayface
Original Score
Ludwig Göransson, the composer behind Sinners, is the name to beat again, this time for Nolan.
Leading
The OdysseyLudwig Göransson✓ Seen
In the Mix
La Bola NegraRaül Refree✓ Seen
Disclosure Day
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
Behemoth!
Dune: Part ThreeHans Zimmer
WildwoodDario Marianelli
ArtificialDamon Albarn
Original Song
The most crowded race on the board, with Taylor Swift, Diane Warren and the Isley Brothers all in the hunt.
Leading
“La Nieve”La Bola Negra✓ Seen
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)”The Debut
In the Mix
“I Knew It, I Knew You”Toy Story 5 — Taylor Swift & Jack Antonoff✓ Seen
“By Any Means”By Any Means — Diane Warren; performed by David Kushner & the Isley Brothers
“The Better Part of Bravery”Wildwood — Colin Meloy & the Decemberists
“Let Me Sell You a Dream”Musk
New song by Brittany Howard & Robert Glasper14th
Sound
The big-screen spectacles dominate, and Michael is the music film most likely to crash the lineup.
Leading
The Odyssey✓ Seen
La Bola Negra✓ Seen
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
Dune: Part Three
In the Mix
Michael✓ Seen
Behemoth!
The Mosquito Bowl
Whalefall
Visual Effects
Project Hail Mary leads Gold Derby's odds; Variety picks Dune: Part Three.
Leading
Project Hail Mary✓ Seen
Dune: Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
In the Mix
Whalefall
Wildwood
The Odyssey✓ Seen
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Casting
In year two of the category, the leaders are the films with the deepest ensembles. We've seen all three.
Leading
The OdysseyJohn Papsidera✓ Seen
Wild Horse NineSarah Finn✓ Seen
La Bola NegraEva Leira & Yolanda Serrano✓ Seen
In the Mix
Being HeumannAdam Caldwell & Bernard Telsey
The Debut
Fjord
Michael✓ Seen
Club Kid✓ Seen
I Play Rocky
International Feature Watch
This shouldn't be an afterthought at Cup of Soul. International cinema has become increasingly important throughout the broader awards conversation, and several international titles are already intersecting with the major categories.
Possible Love ✓ Seen
Lee Chang-dong's film left Venice with the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize before playing Toronto. It picked up three Gotham nominations: International Feature, Original Screenplay and Lead Performance for Jeon Do-yeon.
Watching: International Feature • Picture • Director — Lee Chang-dong • Actress — Jeon Do-yeon • Supporting performances
La Bola Negra ✓ Seen
The TIFF People's Choice winner is no longer simply a festival discovery. Its potential reaches across Picture, Director, acting and international-film conversations.
Fjord
The Cannes Palme d'Or winner remains a significant presence in the Picture, Director and acting conversations.
All of a Sudden
Ryusuke Hamaguchi's film tied for the most Gotham nominations, including Best Director, International Feature, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Performance for Tao Okamoto. It's proving to be a contender well beyond a single category.
Documentary Watch
Some of the season's most urgent filmmaking is happening in documentary, and several of this year's strongest contenders speak directly to Black history and American citizenship.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem ✓ Seen
William Greaves and David Greaves's film, which we saw at Sundance, sits at or near the top of early documentary forecasts and earned five Critics Choice Documentary Award nominations, including Best Documentary Feature. It added a Gotham nomination for Best Documentary Feature.
14th
Ava DuVernay closed the New York Film Festival with her companion to 13th, a look at citizenship and the Fourteenth Amendment. Early reviews are divided, from "essential" to unconvinced, but it leads the Critics Choice Documentary Awards with six nominations. It missed the Gotham documentary lineup.
You Can See Everything
Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim's Elizabeth Holmes documentary earned five Critics Choice Documentary Award nominations, including Best Documentary Feature and Best Director. It's also a Gotham nominee for Best Documentary Feature and the Audience Award.
NAZA
Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor's film joined NYFF's Main Slate and now leads several early documentary forecasts, including Variety's and Gold Derby's. It's a Gotham nominee for Best Documentary Feature.
The Cup of Soul Festival Factor
One thing makes this tracker different from simply collecting awards predictions from around the internet.
We've been watching the movies.
Cup of Soul's 2026 festival coverage has taken us through Sundance, SXSW, Cannes and TIFF, giving us firsthand experience with a growing number of films now entering the awards conversation.
Seen by Cup of Soul
As more contenders become available, that list will grow. And when we've seen it, we'll tell you what we think — whether awards pundits agree with us or not.
What We're Watching Next
Can La Bola Negra turn its TIFF win into sustained industry support?
Does Wild Horse Nine expand beyond John Malkovich and become an across-the-board contender?
Can Jack O'Connell break through the crowded Best Actor field for Ink?
Does I Play Rocky's Toronto audience response translate beyond TIFF?
Can Clarissa turn its Gotham haul into a wider awards run for Sophie Okonedo and India Amarteifio?
Which international films move into the main Best Picture conversation?
Can Rosalind Eleazar's performance outlast the mixed reception for Misty Green?
Does Behemoth! make Pedro Pascal a serious Best Actor contender?
Can You Can See Everything become the first documentary ever nominated for Best Picture?
Does Taylor Swift finally land her first Oscar nomination, and who gets squeezed out of Original Song?
What happens when the major late-season titles finally screen?
Awards seasons rarely end the way they look in October. We'll keep updating the Cup of Soul Awards Tracker as the race changes.
